Macro Analysis

China’s Economy Is Sending A Warning From The Factory Floor

Warsh Wants Lower Rates, but the Economy Is Not Cooperating

Kevin Warsh wants easier policy, but inflation, jobs, and the bond market are pushing back.

The Pay Raise Just Got Eaten At The Pump

The Jobs Market Just Took Rate Cuts Off The Table

Hiring beat expectations, unemployment held steady, and the Fed just got more reason to wait.

AI Layoffs Are Here, And The Market Is Picking Winners

America’s Debt Tab Just Crossed A Line

U.S. debt just topped 100% of GDP, and the market is starting to price the bill.

The Fed Stayed Put, And That “Wait” Is Doing A Lot Of Work

Powell’s Exit Door Is Open, And The Rate Path Just Got A Little Softer

Warsh’s path is clearing, the Fed’s tone could change, and flat-to-lower rates now look like the cleaner bet.

USMCA Was Supposed To Be Settled, Now It’s Back On The Table

Gas Did The Heavy Lifting, But The Consumer Still Showed Up

March retail sales jumped 1.7%, but gas stations did a lot of the work. The real read is more selective.

Consumers Hit The Brakes Before The Economy Did

Gas Lit The CPI, And The Fed Just Lost Its Easy Excuse

March CPI hit 3.3%, gas did the shouting, and real wages took a hit. Here’s the smarter play.